How much weight do voters place on corruption when deciding which candidate or political party to vote for? I raise this question not to suggest that the Ghanaian voter does not care about the issue of corruption in government because I strongly believe they do. Rather, it is quite intriguing to examine their responses to this issue from various pre-election surveys and polls. What does the data reveal?

Corruption Ranking in Election Years

In election years when Ghanaian voters have been asked about the issue of corruption here is how they have answered in relation to the total number of issues. From the National Commission of Civic Education’s Matters of Concern to The Ghanaian Voter, here is how corruption has been ranked– 6^th out of 12 (2004); 8^th out of 10 (2008); 12^th out of 14 (2012); 7^th out of 16 (2016); and 11^th out of 20 (2020).

From CDD-Ghana’s pre-election surveys, corruption ranked as follows – 2^nd out 11 (July 2016); 2^nd out of 10 (October 2016); and 2^nd out of 12 (October 2020).

From Prof. Owusu Mensah’s pre-election study of twenty-four swing constituencies in 2016, the issue of corruption was ranked 4^th out of a total of 8 issues.

According to Global Info Analytics (April 2024 poll) corruption was ranked 6^th out of a total of 15 important issues.

In Prof. Smart Sarpong’s baseline report (April 2024), corruption was ranked 10^th out of a total of 12 issues.

One important distinction across these surveys/polls is that the framing of the question varies– NCCE (issues of concern that must be prioritized as part of the elections); CDD-Ghana (issues likely to influence voter’s choices); Prof. Owusu Mensah (critical issues likely to influence voters); Global Info Analytics (top election issues for voters); and Prof. Smart Sarpong baseline report (critical challenges the next president must address).

Depending on how the question is framed, the response of Ghanaian voters to the corruption issue in election year suggests a) it is an issue that drives their vote or b) an issue whose importance diminishes relative to other issues. For example, the NCCE election year surveys have regularly shown education, health, and unemployment as the top three issues voters want prioritized in election years. In the Global Info Analytics poll as well as Prof. Sarpong’s baseline report, unemployment emerged as the number one issue with others such as the economy, roads, education, inflation, etc. outranking corruption.

Corruption as an Overall Important Issue

Does this mean that Ghanaians do not place much importance on the issue of corruption? Not at all. In fact, a critical analysis of data from the Afrobarometer survey will show that Ghanaian attitudes towards corruption as an important problem to be dealt with has changed. In 2002, Afrobarometer asked the following question – “In your opinion, what are the most important problems facing this country that government should address?” The question has been asked a total of eight times between then and the most recent round of the survey (Round 9, 2022).

Over the period, here is how Ghanaians have answered the question out of the total number of important problems – 16^th out 25 (2002); 15^th out of 29 (2005); 18^th out of 35 (2008); 11^th out of 35 (2012); 9^th out of 34 (2014); 5^th out of 31 (2017); 7^th out of 30 (2019); and 6^th out of 31 (2022).

The trajectory shows that Ghanaians now increasingly see corruption as an important problem that must be dealt with by any government.

Besides the changing importance attached to corruption, the evaluation of the fight against corruption clearly shows that Ghanaians have inclinations about the progress being made. If you look at the results from the Afrobarometer survey, here is how Ghanaians have rated the fight against corruption in terms of the percentage who have answered “fairly well/very well” to the question “how well is the government handling the fight against corruption?” – 34% (1999); 63% (2002); 55% (2005); 56% (2008); 43% (2012); 25% (2014); 60% (2017); 40% (2019);  and14% (2022).

Two things are clear – a) Ghanaians increasingly see corruption as an important problem to be dealt with and b) overtime do not evaluate the fight against corruption well.

Making Sense of The Paradox

How then should the corruption issue be handled as part of the 2024 election given what the empirical evidence suggests? Political parties must demonstrate to the voter that while other issues such as unemployment, health, education, roads, etc. may be emphasized by them as being more important, corruption has a corrosive effect on the ability to effectively address these policy priorities. Perhaps that is the connection needed to get voters to place more weight on how they feel about the issue and the extent to which it should influence their voting decisions.

John Osae-Kwapong (PhD) is a Democracy and Development (D&D) Fellow at the Ghana Center for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana) and the Project Director at The Democracy Project.